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Post Info TOPIC: 2026 - Men's Ranking Prediction Competition


Tennis legend

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2026 - Men's Ranking Prediction Competition


 

Time to start scratching your heads and come up with your predictions for 2026. We had 36 entries in 2025 which was 11 less than the women's competition, so I hope more will take part this time around. The closing date for entries is midnight on Saturday Dec 27th as I will be out of the country for the following week. So you have just over 2 weeks to get your entries in. No need to rush to enter. I won't be putting any entries onto the spreadsheet before Christmas, so until then you can change your entry as much as you like - but please, do it by editing your post rather than posting afresh, to save me some work !

The finishing date for the competition will probably be the 15th December 2026 to tie in with the womens competition - as this is likely to be the last ranking update of the season after the WTA125 indoor events.
Just so everyone is clear, and for anyone who didn't take part last year, here are the competition rules

Select 10 players and give your prediction of their end-of season GB ranking and world ranking.
As in the 2023 competition one substitute player is allowed, who must be named as such at the same time as the main selection of 10. Their predicted WR must also be given. The eleventh player may be substituted for any one of your main selections, but only in the two weeks immediately following the end of Wimbledon (i.e. 14th to 27th July only, to be confirmed precisely nearer the time). This will give a little flexibility, particularly in the case of long-term injuries, and will make it more interesting. The substitute will take your prediction of the GB ranking of the player they replace, so for example if you replaced Jay Clarke (GB #6) with Liam Broady (GB #16), Liam would become your #6 prediction so think carefully ! Continuing from last year, there will be two dummy entries, AsYouWere (based on the starting rankings) and Mr Average (based on everyone's WR predictions).

Points will be awarded with a maximum of 20 points per player split between GB ranking and world ranking.


I am changing the WR scoring system this year to reward those whose predictions are close for players inside WR100. This will be achieved by factoring the % difference by a variable amount depending on the players ranking. This will hopefully give better points. For example, a prediction for Jack Draper of WR14 when he finished WR10 would give 6 points instead of zero under the previous rules.


World ranking - based on % difference adjusted for the top 100 only. 10 points if your prediction is within 3.0%, 8 for +/- 6%,6 for +/- 9%, 4 if +/- 12%, 3 if +/- 15%, 2 if +/- 20 and 1 if +/- 25%.  The reason why world ranking points is on % is that there is a big spread of rankings for GB top 10, so this method tries to even it out.

GB rankings will be double the points from previous years plus a bonus for a podium !

10 points for a correct prediction, 8 for one out, 6 for 2 out, 4 for 3 out, 3 for 4 out, 2 for 5 out, more than 5 out and the player finishes in GB top 10 will be 1 point. Note you can get points if a player finishes as low as GB14 e.g. You predict 10 they finish 14 difference is 4 so 2 points. You also get a point if your player finishes in the top ten if you havent gained any points for them already i.e. you predict GB7 and they finish GB1 you still get one point.

 



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Club Coach

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TA, presume you are keeping the same ratings for rankings 101 and upwards; 7.5% 5 points,  15% 4 points etc.

Here's my predictions for 2026.

Jack D. 8

Cam N. 20

Jake F. 50

Jan C. 90

Arthur F. 95

Jay C. 130

Oliver C. 150

Toby S. 160

Jack  PJ. 170

Billy H. 190

 

Sub Oliver T. 180



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Tennis legend

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No miriam, points for rankings have been tinkered with - see my post above.

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Club Coach

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So no points if you are outside 20% for WR rankings above 100?



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Tennis legend

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Here is my entry:

1.  Cam N - 18

2. Jack D - 30

3. Jake F - 50

4. Jan C - 110

5. Arthur F - 125

6. George L - 150

7. Jack PJ - 160

8. Toby S - 175

9. Oli T - 180

10. JoMo - 185

Sub: Billy H - 130



-- Edited by JonH comes home on Monday 15th of December 2025 12:28:24 PM



-- Edited by JonH comes home on Wednesday 17th of December 2025 04:21:56 PM

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Tennis legend

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miriam abc wrote:

So no points if you are outside 20% for WR rankings above 100?


The limit is 25% for one point. For example, Billy is WR126. A prediction of 157 will give 1 point for 24.6%, 158 will be 0 points for 25.4%. I think that is a fair enough margin.

I've been tinkering with the formulae over the last month to make the points for rankings under 100 a bit more generous. Nested IF statements and added lookup tables. Excel can get complicated !

 



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Junior player

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Runner Up in 2025 - hoping for 1 place higher in 2026!!

 

My prediction:

1. Draper 8
2. Norrie 25
3. Fearnley 40
4. Fery 125
5. Pinnington-Jones 135
6. Choinski 140
7. Clarke 145
8. Evans 150
9. Harris 155
10.Loffhagen 160

Sub: Samuel 150



-- Edited by pauliscot on Thursday 18th of December 2025 04:06:24 PM

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Club Coach

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Points will be awarded with a maximum of 20 points per player split between GB ranking and world ranking.


I am changing the WR scoring system this year to reward those whose predictions are close for players inside WR


World ranking - based on % difference adjusted for the top 100 only. 10 points if your prediction is within 3.0%, 8 for +/- 6%, 6 for +/- 9%, 3 if +/- 12%, 2 if +/- 15%, 1 if +/- 20.  The reason why world ranking points is on % is that there is a big spread of rankings for GB top 10, so this method tries to even it out.

TA, sorry if I am being thick here  but I like if possible to do my own calculations. So I don't understand 1 point for +/- 25%, as in your example for Billy when above says 1 point for +/- 20%

 


 



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Tennis legend

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Miriam, well done for spotting my typos - I wrote the notes whilst looking at the spreadsheet - and missed out the line for 4 points and subsequently the rest were wrong. I've edited the original with the correct figures.
(And of course the women's has/had the same error)

And don't forget, the calculations for percentage difference are factored below WR100. The formula is 100(Predicted - Actual)/Actual and then multiplied by Actual/100



-- Edited by the addict on Monday 15th of December 2025 10:15:49 PM

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Tennis legend

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Here goes nothing:

1: Jack Draper 20
2: Cam Norrie 42
3: Jacob F. 98
4: Billy Harris. 123
5: Jack PJ. 140
6: Arthur Fery. 145
7: Jan Choinski 156
8: Ryan Peniston 165
9: Jo Monday. 168
10: Oli Crawford 175

Sub:
George Loff. 181

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Tennis legend

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JonH comes home wrote:

Here is my entry: Ive amended for Jack D 

1. Cam N - 18

2. Jack D - 30

3. Jake F - 50

4. Jan C - 110

5. Arthur F - 125

6. George L - 150

7. Jack PJ - 160

8. Toby S - 175

9. Oli T - 180

10. JoMo - 185

Sub: Billy H - 130



-- Edited by JonH comes home on Monday 15th of December 2025 12:28:24 PM


Changed in original post.  

I got spooked by Jacks latest injury set back and dropped my prediction for him. 

-- Edited by JonH comes home on Wednesday 17th of December 2025 04:22:19 PM



-- Edited by JonH comes home on Wednesday 17th of December 2025 04:35:18 PM

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Tennis legend

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Almost halfway through the entry period and I was hoping to see a few more entries by now. Ten days and counting !

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Intermediate Club Player

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  1. Jack D                        30
  2. Cam                            40
  3. Jake                            80
  4. Jan                              130
  5. Billy                             150
  6. Oliver C                       170
  7. Toby                            180
  8. George                        190
  9. Jack PJ                       200
  10. Arthur                          210

Sub: Liam                                 160



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Tennis legend

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A reminder of the current top 20 - the starting point for the coming competition

Mens Prediction 2026 Start top 20.jpg



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Lower Club Player

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My optimistic 2026 prediction is:

1. Jack D      7

2. Cam N    24

3. Jake F     44

4. Jane C   105

5. Toby S   122

6. Jack PJ   126

7. JoMo      157

8. Arthur F 162

9. Oliver C 169

10. Jay C   180

Sub. Billy H    143



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