phau in as a LL then monatannes retires so he is into the 3rd rd to play troiki and only won 1 proper match to get there - vs a WC into the qualies at that, and he didn't even win that in straight sets!!!
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Count Zero - Creator of the Statistical Tennis Extrapolation & Verification ENtity or, as we like to call him, that steven.
FAH51 (CC) started the day by saying what most of us were thinking: "Right, another day, another load of chokers and muppets ...", then made the same resolution for the nth time: "If Fat Dave loses this I swear I will NEVER pick him to win a match again. I think I've said that before ..."
Yes, Numpty Nalby's abject defeat by Troicki and Dammit Gasquet's now almost expected w/d (which let in the luckiest of lucky losers, Bjorn Phau, who reached R3 when Montanes retired hurt!) were the big stories of the day as the 'quarter of death' turned out to be not quite so daunting for the lower-ranked players after all, but lethal for two of the biggest serial muppets around.
TAT are the new leaders, gaining a place on day 4 as the end of day 3 leaders BT.net slipped 4 to 5th. The Ducklings also gained a place to 2nd (in fact they led for much of the day) and Team CC regained 2 places to complete the top 3.
The other teams that moved up more than one place were Rusedski.co.uk, back up 2 to 6th, the Feddies, up 2 to 8th after top scoring in R2, and the Dammitaires, moving up 2 from last to 11th.
The second biggest fallers were BBC 606, down 3 to 12th, but they remain ahead of Tennisopolis, who dropped 1 place to last.
INDIVIDUALS
Consistent scoring (21/32 in R1 and 13/16 on both days of R2) has enabled Ollie 361 (IN), up 1 to 1st, to take a narrow lead on tiebreak ahead of Claire Bear (AM), up 4 to 2nd, with R1 winner trisco (CC), up 4 to 3rd, and day 3 leader Grundon (BT), down 3 to 4th, just a point behind.
One point further behind, TennisAnyone74 (TA), up 9 to 5th, and ptmcmahon (TA), up 10 to 6th, spearheaded their team's charge to the top, with (another point back) wolf (BT), up 1 to 7th, Big Al (CC) & sirfredperry (CC), both up 2 to 8=, and Bruce (GR), up 2 to 10th, completing the top 10.
ON THE RISE
You needed to get 14/16 correct on day 4 to rise over 100 places, and the two entrants who managed it were andys_ipod (AM), 111 to 34=, and mary91 (RF), up 119 to 69=.
The top scorers for R2 as a whole, with 27/32 correct, were Claire Bear (AM), up 4 to 2nd on the day, Lana105 (IN), up 23 to 11th, and seb (IN), up 80 to 71st. All of the top 10 got at least 75% correct in R2.
DODGY DROPPERS
Apart from the gorillas (who have now gone from feast to total famine in the space of two days), the only entrant not to score over 50% on day 4 was mikeduke (BT), down 117 to 239th.
Also dropping over 100 places with 9/16 correct were Jack Buxton (BT), down 101 to 124th, poolietennis (IN), down 103 to 163=, and hfwardhouse (AM), down 109 to 187=.
OUTLOOK
25 entrants saw all 16 of their R3 winner picks survive R2, though none of them are currently in the top five. All of the top 100 have at least 13, but the unfortunate GiulioAxe (RG) can only score points for at most 8 R3 winners, despite moving up 16 to 225th on day 4.
MORE QUOTES OF THE DAY
WimbledonAce (CC) realises why the warnings on the BT.net Competitions page are there: "Just chuckling to myself, I could be watching this downstairs, instead I'm up here looking at live scores! That's what BOTB does to you!" (quite!)
Once Numpty had lost, all of Portsey (BT)'s frustration tumbled out: "Jesus, can this get any worse?? Numpty doesn't do his usual and wake up only when he's about to lose and instead limps home in 2nd place. I had him to beat Murray - the 1st time i've gone against our home boy. This is a rubbish tournament, i hate it and i wish i had never entered! (slams laptop down and stomps upstairs in tantrum)"
OneMinuteToMidKnight (AM) is convinced the French and Germans are conspiring against us: "Judging by some of the backhands and the almost choke, i would make a guess that Phau is Dammit wearing a mask." (he could be onto something though!)
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GB on a shirt, Davis Cup still gleaming, 79 years of hurt, never stopped us dreaming ... 29/11/2015 that dream came true!
On a day on which 5 of the 8 matches were won by a top 16 seed backed by more than 75% of the entrants and one of the others was won by a player nobody had predicted would reach the L16 (Dent), the day revolved around the 'who'll implode first' battle between Monfils and Safin, which caused a lot of excitement on AM.com in particular before the high-seeded Frenchman finally came out on top, and most of all Flake v Berdbrain (one of the worst quality night matches I've seen for a long time), where the Czech player eventually caused an upset long after most people (including the fast-dwindling crowd) had given up caring.
TAT managed to hold onto 1st place for another day, which seems odd given that they do not have anybody in the individual top 10, until you realise that they have 11 players in the top 40! They would have dropped to 5th had Flake won, but being a predominantly American team, they've clearly had their fingers burnt backing him too many times and backed Berdbrain more than most.
It was a reasonable day for the predominantly British teams too, with Team CC, up 1 to 2nd, BT.net, up 2 to 3rd, and Rusedski.co.uk, up 2 to 4th, all gaining ground, mainly at the expense of the Ducklings, who dropped 4 to 6th.
As in R2, it was one of the teams near the bottom that top-scored on day 5, Tennisopolis.com rising 3 to 10th as a result - they swapped places with T4Y, who dropped 3 to last.
INDIVIDUALS
6/8 correct was not the highest score of the day but was enough to take one of the R2 winners, Claire Bear (AM) up 1 place and into the lead. Three players from the BT.net team are breathing down her neck - former leader Grundon (BT), up 2 to 2nd, & The Hoose (BT), up 14 to 3rd, both a point behind, with wolf (BT), up 3 to 4th, 2 points further back.
The rest of the top 10 are also 3 points off the lead, including Team CC players Big Al (CC) & sirfredperry (CC), both up 3 to 5=, highest-placed debutant djuky (VB), up 21 to 7th, Bruce (GR), up 2 to 8th, Daniel/Belgarath1981 (RF), up 23 to 9th, and Lana105 (IN), up 1 to 10th.
The biggest casualty from the end of R2 top 10 was Ollie361 (IN), down 29 from 1st to 30th after scoring just 4/8 on day 5, while 5/8 meant that trisco (CC), down 10 to 11th, TennisAnyone74 (TA), down 19 to 24th, and ptmcmahon (TA), down 20 to 26th, all lost their places in the top 10 too.
ON THE RISE
24 entrants equal top scored on day 5 with 7/8 (which generally meant they went for Berdbrain plus the top seeds in the other matches) with human yo-yo hfwardhouse (AM), up 85 to 102, and Team Berdbrain's sole member Portsey (TB), up 82 to 126th, the two fastest risers.
DODGY DROPPERS
She has a knack of dropping like a stone when the gorillas are in distress (as they currently are, miles adrift of the field) and SallyDaisy (JM) seems to have no intention of leaving them to go hungry this time, equal bottom scoring with just 2/8 correct and diving 171 places from 22nd to 193rd in her haste to come to their aid. Awww ...
GiulioAxe (RG), down 28 to 253rd, matched Sally's day 5 score and Craven91 (BT), down 113 to 217th, joined Sally in falling more than 100 places after getting 3/8 correct. In fact, you needed to score 6/8 on day 5 to be sure of moving up, though lower scores were sometimes enough for a rise for those who started out near the bottom.
QUOTES OF THE DAY
Monfils' ultimately fruitless attempt to roll over against Safin caused a fair bit of friendly banter on AM.com between those suffering from having backed either player, e.g. LadyTigress (IN)'s "Monfils just fell over! Come on, retire, Monfils, you know you want to!!!!" and ASE (AM)'s loosely relevant "If Monfils had bad flatulence, would it be a Gael force wind?"
beaujarkko (TA) summed up the massive gamble that would lead to TAT heading the table "I can't believe we've put our fate in this contest in the hands of Tommy Berdych, but we have."
Meanwhile, some successful members of the same team seem to have only just remembered that they entered the competition in the first place, e.g. Charlie02123 (TA)'s somewhat worrying Ooooooh! I just checked my individual results. I'm ranked 28th! What's even more exciting is that I'm actually down 12 spots. That means I was 16th!!! How come I didn't get no shout out, Steve-o? Don't act like what we had wasn't special! (any excuse for them to dig out that mendacious banner that they nicked from CC, it seems!) and mmmm8 (TA)'s "Oh, wow, I haven't been checking and missed the time when I was in top 5!!!"
Finally, relative newbie sirfredperry (CC) has found the competition to be less than condusive to marital harmony. "My wife is becoming increasingly suspicious about my intense relationship with BOTB."
MONDAY PICKS ANALYSIS / OoP / PREVIEW:
In all of Monday's matches except one, 95% or more of the entrants have their winner pick involved, the only exception being what could have been the match of the round, where the 77% who picked Numpty will be hoping that Troicki can take out Phau (who as a lucky loser, still counts towards points for those who picked Dammit) to limit the damage. (nickname guide)
SC/1 @ 16.00 BST: Potty 97% v Tipsy 1% (already out: Melzer 2%) C1/1 @ 16.00 BST: Phau (in for Dammit) 21% v Troicki 1% (already out: Numpty 77%) SC/2 @ nb 18 BST: Rafa 99% v Gil 0% (already out: Big Ivo 1%) GC/3 @ nb 19 BST: Cilic 50% v Pics 49% (already out: Isner 1%) GC/4 after MCvDF: Wawrinka 66% v Andreev 30% (already out: Seppi 3%, GGL 1%) SC/3 @ c. 20 BST: Muzza 97% v Massu 0% (already out: Fish 3%) GC/5 after SWvIA :Verdasco 93% v Floppy 2% (already out: Querrey 5%, Muller 1%) SC/5 @ nb 00 BST: Gonzo 66% v Count Duckula 32% (already out: Kunitsyn 1%, Canas 1%)
The big swing matches (those likely to see the highest proportion of entrants making significant moves up or down the table) are Cilic v Pics (picked by 128 and 126 entrants respectively!), Stani v Igor (picked by about 2/3 and 1/3 respectively) and Gonzo v the Count (also picked 2:1), though the other matches could see huge movements either way for those who made the minority picks.
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GB on a shirt, Davis Cup still gleaming, 79 years of hurt, never stopped us dreaming ... 29/11/2015 that dream came true!
... but he is only 1 of 2 to chose Tsonga to win it ! I watch with interest - if wolf finishes at no 1 then I propose that the he selects the next DC team.
Three matches held the key to most of the big moves yesterday and Cilic (v Pics) & Andreev (v Stani) both contrived to lose from a set up. Only Count Duckula (v Gonzo) managed to hold onto an early lead in one of the matches where both players had been picked by at least 30%.
TAT dropped off the top for a while, but regained 1st place in the end as a result of having gone for the Count in a big way. MTF, up 3 to 2nd, also did well, but it was Tennisopolis, up 3 to 7th, who top-scored in R3. Team CC, down 1 to 3rd, lost a bit of ground but remain within a point of the leaders.
No team dropped more than 2 places, but a 2 place drop left the Dammitaires in last place as their hero's replacement Phau's luck finally ran out.
INDIVIDUALS
There is no doubt who the star of the day 6 was. Newbie P@t 0van (SK), up 46 to 1st, one of just two entrants who picked Troicki to get to the L16, managed to get all of the other results correct as well to get 8/8 on the day, giving him 14/16 correct for the round as a whole.
With 7/7 on day 6, TennisAnyone74 (TA), up 22 to 2nd, GoGo (AM), up 24 to 3rd, ended up a point behind the leader, as did nelslus (TA), up 25 to 4th, who equal top-scored for R3 with the leader, as did Cloudy (AM), up 24 to 8th, and Madame (TA), up 26 to 11th.
The other riser in the top 10 was Gaël (RG), up 25 to 6th with 7/8 on day 6 and 13/16 for R3 as a whole, while wolf (BT), down 1 to 5th, sirfredperry (CC), down 2 to 7th, yesterday's leader Claire Bear (AM), down 8 to 9th, and djuky (VB), down 3 to 10th, all dropped back a bit but remain in the top 10 and in a group of 9 players who are two points off the lead.
All of the top 25 plus Roberta the rankings bot (who has recovered from a dreadful R1 to do nearly as well as she did last year), are 4 points (one R4 win) or less behind the leader.
ON THE RISE
Even outside the top 10, a fair number of entrants got 7/8 correct on day 6, i.e. everyone but Troicki. Of these, the three highest risers (all up 70 places) were Michael (JM) in 78th, fightfan (TN) in 134th and Keith Nunn (AM) in 135th.
DODGY DROPPERS
The biggest faller of the day was chriSspotmen (RG), down 73 to 226th after getting 3/8 correct on day 6. However, the lowest scorer for R3 as a whole was SallyDaisy (JM), down 47 to 240th, with just 5/16, her mercy mission to rescue her friends the gorillas from starvation taking her from a fleeting appearance in the top 10 to the edge of the bottom 10 in just 3 days.
OUTLOOK
Amazingly, more than half of the entrants have all of their quarter-finalist picks still standing, so will have a direct interest in every match, though of course even if one of your quarter-finalists (e.g. Numpty) has already gone out, the less fancied player winning the match you had them playing will be good for damage limitation.
Everybody else has at least half of their quarter-finalists left apart from the unfortunate Lugburz (TY), up 5 to 232nd on day 6, who has just two still standing.
QUOTES OF THE DAY
World no. 1 Ashley Harkleroad's ***** (IN) (who seems to have had the same picks as me for the crunch matches) feared the worst before the day even started. "He elegido a Andreev, Stepanek y Cilic. Translation: GSM Wawrinka, Gonzo and Ferrer." Almost correct, unfortunately.
Fitz (JM) was not best pleased with one of his picks, "Might as well call Gonzo the muffin man. He should go sell food in the stands - would give a better performance. Argh!", while SuperBrat (CC) considered even more drastic action: "Cilic is out, so it's all over for me. Can't beleve he lost to that boring screamer Ferrer. Cilic's pic will now be deleted from my mobile phone." Oooer ...
WimbledonAce (CC) may be tempted to attend a meeting of pick 'em-oholics anonymous: "I know what you mean, I am verging on obsessed! Last night I had to keep ducking out of watching a film to check the scores, my boyf was not happy!" and finds that it's not only watching live scores that drives you mad: "I thought watching on the tele would be less stressful, back to the trusty scoreboard from now on!"
Meanwhile, someone who thought they had finally seen the light is sadly disillusioned, but SallyDaisy (JM) still manages one of the comments of the tournament so far: "Oh honestly, from 10th to 245th in 3 days ... and I really thought I'd got the hang of Pick'ems this time around."
At least I've still got all eight winner left, so if they do their job today, I might be able to move into the top 100, which will probably be my best result for a long time.