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steven


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Week 2 - Australian Open women's qualifying
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Grrr, what's the point of being seeded?!

QR1: (?) Laura Robson WR 133 v Melanie Oudin (USA) WR 166 (CH 31 in 2010)

Of course, they had a 1-1 H2H in juniors, with Laura causing a big upset when she thrashed Oudin 1 & 3 on her way to the 2008 junior Wimbledon title days after losing to her in 3 sets in the Roehampton Final.

A decent QR1 draw for Naomi though:

QR1: Naomi Broady WR 195 v Ashley Weinhold (USA) WR 223 (CH 181 last Oct)



-- Edited by steven on Wednesday 11th of January 2012 05:31:31 AM

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Reeltime


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Especially with the fact that Laura would probably have to face Dolonts (WR113) the number 1 seed, in the fqr. Awful draw.

Naomis 1st round looks ok, then possibly Riske and Panova.

That couldve gone a whole lot better to be honest


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philwrig


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Oudin has been shocking for a long time, but you never know when she is going to recapture some better form.
This time around as well Laura will be feeling the pressure being the seed.

As you say Steven, decent draw for Naomi.

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steven


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Reeltime wrote:

Especially with the fact that Laura would probably have to face Dolonts (WR113) the number 1 seed, in the fqr. Awful draw.

Naomis 1st round looks ok, then possibly Riske and Panova.

That couldve gone a whole lot better to be honest

Yes, just seen the possibilities in the later rounds - pretty awful! And Em missed out too - she can't have been far out, given that she was 9 out yesterday, Petko withdrew from MD today creating one place, Bobusic got a MDWC, Rodionova got a QWC and we don't know how many of the others would actually have signed in. She must have been at least 2 places out though, else Rodionova wouldn't have needed the QWC.



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Reeltime


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Just flipping back through the stats pages from last year, and it reminded me that this time last year I was watching Naomi playing the Glasgow 10k. Forgot just how much she came on last year. If my memory is right she struggled to beat Lucy Brown in 3 sets in front of about 3 people who weren't coaches etc

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RBBOT


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At least it is likely to be streamed!

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philwrig


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3rd on court 3 so streamed.
Probably 2.30ish a.m for those prepared to stay up.

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tony_orient


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philwrig wrote:

3rd on court 3 so streamed.
Probably 2.30ish a.m for those prepared to stay up.

 This is certainly the good news from what is a very tough draw for Laura.

 

If Oudin continues to show the form that has seen her drop to 165 in the rankings Laura has a very good chance though.

 

Just had a closer look at Oudin's record last year and she had a 2-12 record from Wimbledon onwards (and ne of the 2 wins was a retirement!). On that basis not a bad draw, just need to hope Laura isn't too rusty having not played for a few months.



-- Edited by tony_orient on Wednesday 11th of January 2012 10:36:19 AM

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indiana


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Certainly don't really see Laura's draw as at all awful.

Hopefully Oudin hasn't managed to refind her game in the off season though.  As for Dolonts being no 1 seed, I'd never see that in itself as any big deal at all, given as usual the top qualifying seeds are closely grouped ( seeds 1 to 12 being WRs 113 to 128 ).  I'm more interested in the fact that Dolonts lost her last 6 matches during the second half of last year, including losses to WR 298 and WR 336 ( retiral when a set down ).

Don't really think there is that much to complain about in either girl's draw.  Just Oudin might be a bit of a banana skin for Laura if she's refound herself ( though got a lot of refinding to do ! ) and Laura is a little rusty.  Naomi's overall draw may be tough for her, but I'd say no tougher than she could expect, and she's certainly at least got a good opportunity to pick up these 40 points for winning Q1.



-- Edited by indiana on Wednesday 11th of January 2012 01:18:41 PM

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philwrig


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Added to that Laura has a winning record over Dolonts( US Open 2010).
I don't actually think Dolonts will get through the top section of the draw, as she has to play Bertens in the first round ( a rapidly improving young Dutch player).
Laura's QR2 potential matchup looks appealing as well.

Naomi's potential QR2 matchup against Riske looks very tricky given the young American's current form.

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Julia Carrot


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philwrig wrote:

3rd on court 3 so streamed.
Probably 2.30ish a.m for those prepared to stay up.

 There's another unfinished match slotted in now, Luke Saville's I think, so would you agree Laura/Mel is unlikely before 4am ?



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Maza1987


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Oudin can't do anything on a tennis court anymore.
Laura is as good as through if she isn't too rusty.

Good draw for Naomi as well.

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philwrig


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Maybe 3.45a.m if I'm being picky as I think it they were already halfway through the first set in Saville's match.
Making the picture more complex though is a 50% chance of showers during the morning and early afternoon so it could be a long night.

Bookies odds to qualify for main draw are 7/2 Laura 10/1 Naomi.

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philwrig


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Maza1987 wrote:

Oudin can't do anything on a tennis court anymore.
Laura is as good as through if she isn't too rusty.

Good draw for Naomi as well.

 Interestingly the bookies odds are more or less 50/50 so I have put my 50p on Laura.

I think the factors which would reduce the chances of a win for Laura are the injury and Oudin has had a full offseason with a new coach. Still though I basically agree Laura should still win all things being equal.



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I wonder if Naomi's court has a serve speed radar on it - with the number of aces she serves, it would be interesting to see just how fast they are.

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