I've not started one of these threads before but I'm gonna give it a go, just because I can!
Wardy is seeded to get through qualifying much to my surprise. Dan S potentially has a good draw, Evo has a tough first match but no reason why he can't qualify again if he's a bit fitter. Dan C has a bit of a stinker though:
Q1: Dan Cox WR 260 v (3) Filip Krajinovic (SRB) WR 109 (=CH)
Q1: Daniel Smethurst WR 256 v Konstantin Kravchuk (RUS) WR 223 (CH 126 in 2010)
Q1: Dan Evans WR 176 v (16) Jimmy Wang (TPE) WR 132 (CH 85 in 2006)
Q1: (15) James Ward WR 121 v Aldin Sektic (BIH) WR 247 (CH 217 last year)
-- Edited by Jaffa on Monday 18th of August 2014 11:17:44 PM
This is a massive tournament for Dan Evans, who is at risk of falling back to square one points-wise (with only Zagreb saving him) unless he can beat Wang, which is completely and utterly up in the air. I have a natural preference towards Evo winning but there is always that indifference regarding the guy that 'Dan is Dan' just can't fix. It's unlikely that Cox will come through but then he does have some potential to cause an upset on a perfect storm. Smethurst is in quite a favourable position for a non-seed and actually has a decent chance at getting to the FQR or qualifying. Ward....should qualify but then who really knows? I'm putting my belief in him qualifying due to his seeding and a very good counter-seed but I wouldn't be at all surprised if he didn't.
I'd say that looks a good draw for Evo, in that for him it is surely about aiming to qualify so the overall section is much more relevant than QR1 and the 8 points for that.
Mr Evans' section is primarily an odd combination of juniors/university students and some quite dangerous veterans - Wang and de Bakker, the two seeds, and Mr Evans himself. Of the younger players, I don't really think from the little I've seen that Kozlov is quite ready to play at this level yet. Coric is clearly a threat; Mitchell Frank seems to have been coming along quite nicely at a lower level, but hasn't proved himself at this level, and Chung is a great unknown - clearly anyone who's 18 and ranked 250 is in pretty good nick, but one wonders whether his points are inflated by his playing relatively weaker Asian tournaments. The other player is Velotti, about whom I know nothing.
Wang retired in his first round qualies match at Cincinnati - were it not for that, I'd say it was a rather rough matchup for Mr Evans. De Bakker, meanwhile, looks to be on a bit of a streak, with wins over the summer against Sijsling and Anderson. Again, not the easiest of match-ups. But who knows?
Krajinovic started off the year playing hard court challies - and lost everything, which is why he dropped back to futures and annoyingly won a couple (as Dan S will testify).
Since then, though, apart from a short obligatory sortie on grass, he's done nothing but play on clay. So a little glimmer of hope for Cox.
Kravchuk, on the contrary, only plays on hard - but, apart from a couple of decent results, is having a pretty dire year (may that continue - sorry, Kravchuk's mum).
Setkic has had some success in futures this year but nothing more.
And Jimmy Wang retired from his last match - first round, at the ATP in Cincinnati a week or two ago. And James Ward beat Wang 6-3 6-1 on hard in July in Colombia.
All in all, that's a good first round draw, I reckon.
Dan Cox - tough draw, can't see him getting through this
Dan S - pretty favourable draw though hasn't done anything to suggest he can beat anyone ranked above him to be honest
Dan E - I think its quite a hard draw. Wang's a decent player. Might depend on which Dan turns up
James - couldn't have asked for a much better draw to be honest. Seeding courtesy of exploits in Cincy, though poss a bit lucky to sneak into top 16. No dangerous "floaters". Just hope he can cope with the pressure as I'd say he's "expected" to qualify.
I'd say that Dan S late last year and for the first few months of this year did a lot to suggest that he could beat ( and did beat ) players ranked higher than himself, and it was most encouraging.
It is a pity that he hasn't been able to push on recently, apparently not helped by a few injury niggles.
A good QR1 draw, but maybe not at a time that he can take advantage of it.
I'm with Indy, I have no doubt that Smethy can beat higher ranked players, he did it at Eastbourne, and performed well against Isner. He now has a huge weapon in terms of his fearhand, and I'm sure it is only injury that has held him back since Wimby.