2019 Race to Shenzhen

indiana · Tennis legend

2019 Race to Shenzhen

indiana · Tennis legend

The early Beijing skirmishing has seen R1 wins for Bencic and Bertens.

Also a loss to Ostapenko for Ka Pliskova, enhancing most particularly Barty's chances of being the end of season #1.

indiana · Tennis legend

indiana wrote:
So the Wuhan final will be between Sabalenka and Riske, still very outside and very very outside shots for Shenzhen even for whoever wins the final tomorrow. Whatever, Jo will still be race #11 on Monday on 2880 points, herself pretty far behind the top 10's points even if she was playing.

Kvitova's SF, taking her to #6 4186 points, has seen her probably join #5 Osaka 4246 points as very good finals bets, if still far from yet definites. Barty, Ka Pliskova, Halep and Andreescu are mathematically guaranteed or near enough.

#7 to #10 going into Beijing, taking off their 16th counters where they have any ( to allow in the Beijing mandatory ) :

7. S Williams : 3935 - 0 = 3935 ( not playing Beijing and ? re Shenzhen finals )
8. E Svitolina : 3781 - 1 = 3780
9. B Bencic : 3615 - 30 = 3585
10. K Bertens : 3585 - 105 = 3480

After Beijing, the final 2 weeks for finals qualification have first the Linz and Tianjin Internationals ( 280 points to the winners ) and then the Moscow Premier (470) and Luxembourg International (280).

Svitolina, Bencic and Bertens have all now won 2 rounds in Beijing to close in on Serena as they play for what may be the final WTA finals spot or final 2 spots if Serena doesn't play. All 3 are in the top half of the Beijing draw so there may be some interesting QF and SF matches to come. Latest live race positions :

5. N Osaka 4246 + 65 = 4311 ( in L32 )

6. P Kvitova 4186 + 0 = 4186 ( in L32 through a bye )

7. S Williams 3935 + 0 = 3935 ( not playing )

8. E Svitolina 3780 + 120 = 3900 ( in L16 )

9. B Bencic 3585 + 120.= 3705 ( in L16 )

10. K Bertens 3480 + 120 = 3600 ( in L16 )

JonH comes home · Tennis legend

Halep and Andreescu have been confirmed as in the field for the Finals. And 4 doubles pairs also confirmed as in.

emmsie69 · Top national player

JonH comes home wrote:
Halep and Andreescu have been confirmed as in the field for the Finals. And 4 doubles pairs also confirmed as in.

Poor Halep she has done her best the last 2 tournaments to avoid qualifying, I think she will be 'injured' again

Ace Ventura · Tennis legend

It's getting quite interesting now. As Indy says, the 3 who it is most likely to come do all won yesterday, but Bencic had to save 2 successive MPs in an exciting deciding set with Venus, and Svitolina just sneaked past Wang Yafan in 2 TB sets, while Bertens, who was actually the slight betting underdog in her match, was more convincing. They all play their last 16 matches tomorrow, but this time, it's only Bertens who is the favourite, as Benic and Svitolina are betting underdogs against Kvitova and Kenin respectively, so it'll be interesting to see how it looks this time tomorrow.

Of course, if Halep does withdraw again (as well as Serena) then this will all be academic, as it turned out to be last year, despite players globetrotting to try and pick up last minute points at the smaller events.

indiana · Tennis legend

Latest :

5. P Kvitova 4186 + 215 = 4401 ( in QF vs Barty )
6. N Osaka 4246 + 120 = 4366 ( in L16 vs Riske )
7. E Svitolina 3780 + 215 = 3995 ( in QF vs Bertens )
8. S Williams 3935 + 0 = 3935 ( not playing )
9. B Bencic 3585 + 120 = 3705 ( lost in L16 vs Kvitova )
10. K Bertens 3480 + 215 = 3695 ( in QF vs Svitolina )

So Kvitova and Osaka look increasingly 'safe' and that Svitolina vs Bertens QF could be very important.

Ace Ventura · Tennis legend

The field looks pretty much set now (assuming Serena doesn't play). Osaka and Kvitova officially join Barty, Pliskova, Halep and Andreescu. Bertens beats Svitolina to leapfrog Bencic and now has a 165 point lead on Bencic. Bencic's lowest counter is 55, so she'd have to win Linz next week to remain in contention, or try and get a WC into Moscow, and I'm not sure she is eligible for a Top 20 WC to make that more likely. If Bertens beats Barty in the semi final tomorrow then Serena would be out of the top 8 anyway.

Bencic would be an alt, and there's always the chance she might get to play a match or two, assuming she isn't able to overtake Bertens in the first place.

Again, assuming Serena doesn't play, looking at the entry lists for the remaining tournaments, it looks like Konta would be guaranteed the second alt slot. She was an alt in 2016, but withdrew from that chance in 2017, so it would remain to be seen what she would do this year. If she plays Moscow, rather than potentially shutting down her season, then it may give her more incentive to play the Elite Trophy in Zhuhai, and then be an alt the week after in Shenzhen (Zhuhai and Shenzhen are only a couple of hours away and in the same province).

indiana · Tennis legend

I don't think the finals field is quite so set, for now anyway.

Bertens plays Barty in the Beijing SF so tough task and if she doesn't win that then the fat lady certainly has to stay away from the stage for now let alone not start getting vocal.

Bencic is surely well capable of winning Linz which may put her ahead of Bertens. And even after that I'm not sure what manoevering could yet be done re a Moscow WC, and even the Luxembourg International the same week could yet be useful.

If Bencic plays both weeks even Svitolina is far from safe from being overtaken by both Bertens and Bencic.

-- Edited by indiana on Friday 4th of October 2019 11:59:38 AM

Ace Ventura · Tennis legend

I'm possibly looking at it more from a pessimistic Bencic fan's POV and fearing the worst, whereas someone more neutral might see it a bit differently. Barty-Bertens certainly is a big match and could go a long way, and while Bencic would be a high seed in Linz and start as one of the favourites, the way she blew that 4-2 final set lead against Kudermetova in Wuhan, scraped past this version of Venus, and then beaten soundly by Kvitova (which is no disgrace), doesn't fill me with too much hope that she'd go on a big run in Linz, which is now significantly stronger than it's equivalent Tianjin, which has suffered a spate of high profile withdrawals.

If Bertens does lose tomorrow, (which at the start of the week I'd say was likely, but not so sure now), then yes, all eyes will be on Linz to see how that pans out and the race would continue, but it's definitely advantage Bertens at the moment.

Ace Ventura · Tennis legend

Seems like it's just me and Indi on this thread, with the odd contribution elsewhere every now and then.

Bertens served for the match and then had a MP on serve in the deciding set TB, but eventually lost out to Barty, which is a huge boost to Bencic. Bertens has since taken a late Top 20 WC into Linz next week, and is the top seed, but Kvitova's withdrawal means Bencic remains the 2nd seed. Bertens needs to win it to gain any points, and Bencic needs to win it to pass Kiki, so if (it went with seeding and) they did meet in the final then that would be a huge match. There is Sevastova, Vekic, Goerges and a few other obstacles in their way before that though. Alexandrova is in decent form and is particularly good indoors, so the main draw will be interesting when it comes out.

Still no news on the Luxembourg WC situation.

-- Edited by Ace Ventura on Saturday 5th of October 2019 04:41:42 PM

the addict · Tennis legend

Might not be posting, but am reading with interest. I bow to your greater knowledge !

flamingowings · All-time great

the addict wrote:
Might not be posting, but am reading with interest. I bow to your greater knowledge !

Add me to this sentiment too.

Michael D · All-time great

the addict wrote:
Might not be posting, but am reading with interest. I bow to your greater knowledge !

Haha yeah, I'm not even going to pretend I can keep up with yours and Indy's maths on this Ace! wink

JonH comes home · Tennis legend

Ditto re reading but not got much to add. It seems a 3 way run in though with Svitolina, Bertens and Bencic. I see Bencic isnt in for Moscow yet in terms of a WC. Surely the WTA have to make a rule that if someone in actual contention for a Finals place needs a WC in last event or two, they get it? Would be terribly sad if she needed and wanted one for Moscow if they denied her and went with a local Russian ?

That aside, WTA this season with Barty, Andreescu, Osaka and Halep all winning slams is great, Firsts three seem in fine form ahead of the Tour Finals and it bodes well for the next season or three if they can forge a new set of rivalries. this week in Beijing has been v interesting with Osaka beating Andreescu and playing Barty in the final and I look forward to hearing tomorrows result!