Weeks 10 & 11- ATP Masters 1000 - BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells, CA, USA (hard)

indiana · Tennis legend

Weeks 10 & 11- ATP Masters 1000 - BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells, CA, USA (hard)

Strongbow · All-time great

Now that was unexpected - at least by me. Well done Jack biggrin

indiana · Tennis legend

Strongbow wrote:
Now that was unexpected - at least by me. Well done Jack

Jack was favoured to beat Fritz in the Tennis Abstract simulations in the link Jon posted, and I believe he was also slight favourite with the bookies.

Neil Gee · County player

Yes quite fancied Jack to come through given his current form just sorry it was on too late for me to watch it.

Julia Carrot · All-time great

Neil Gee wrote:
Yes quite fancied Jack to come through given his current form just sorry it was on too late for me to watch it.

Yes, me too. even subscribed one day only with Now TV and watched some of first set.

JonH comes home · Tennis legend

Excellent, well done Jack - hes really doing well this event and season generally. Very professional performances - and James Trotman and Alex Ward deserve a lot of credit as well.

9vicman · Satellite level

JonH comes home wrote:
But yeah, its surface specific ELO at its heart

Thanks Jon

JonH comes home · Tennis legend

indiana wrote:
Strongbow wrote:
Now that was unexpected - at least by me. Well done Jack
Jack was favoured to beat Fritz in the Tennis Abstract simulations in the link Jon posted, and I believe he was also slight favourite with the bookies.

It wouldnt surprise me if any Bookies have some arrangement - paid or otherwise - with something like the tennis abstract tool?

Coup Droit · Tennis legend

JonH comes home wrote:
indiana wrote:
Strongbow wrote:
Now that was unexpected - at least by me. Well done Jack
Jack was favoured to beat Fritz in the Tennis Abstract simulations in the link Jon posted, and I believe he was also slight favourite with the bookies.
It wouldnt surprise me if any Bookies have some arrangement - paid or otherwise - with something like the tennis abstract tool?

The bookies only reflect the bets - they don't set them (apart from the very first ones)

The flow of money determines the bets on a betting site, not the company

PS Super win ! Like others, I couldn't watch much - too late - and also think Fritz often disappoints and Jack played really well in the previous matches - so was really hoping for a win when I got up this morning - and here we are biggrin

-- Edited by Coup Droit on Thursday 13th of March 2025 08:23:24 AM

Jan · Hall of fame

Brilliant win for Jack!!
Great news to wake up to.

Helen40 · Grand Slam Champion

Coup Droit wrote:
JonH comes home wrote:
indiana wrote:
Strongbow wrote:
Now that was unexpected - at least by me. Well done Jack
Jack was favoured to beat Fritz in the Tennis Abstract simulations in the link Jon posted, and I believe he was also slight favourite with the bookies.
It wouldnt surprise me if any Bookies have some arrangement - paid or otherwise - with something like the tennis abstract tool?
The bookies only reflect the bets - they don't set them (apart from the very first ones)
The flow of money determines the bets on a betting site, not the company
PS Super win ! Like others, I couldn't watch much - too late - and also think Fritz often disappoints and Jack played really well in the previous matches - so was really hoping for a win when I got up this morning - and here we are

Thanks for this, I had always assumed that it was just how likely a player was to win that reflected their odds.

Coup Droit · Tennis legend

Helen40 wrote:
Coup Droit wrote:
JonH comes home wrote:
indiana wrote:
Strongbow wrote:
Now that was unexpected - at least by me. Well done Jack
Jack was favoured to beat Fritz in the Tennis Abstract simulations in the link Jon posted, and I believe he was also slight favourite with the bookies.
It wouldnt surprise me if any Bookies have some arrangement - paid or otherwise - with something like the tennis abstract tool?
The bookies only reflect the bets - they don't set them (apart from the very first ones)
The flow of money determines the bets on a betting site, not the company
PS Super win ! Like others, I couldn't watch much - too late - and also think Fritz often disappoints and Jack played really well in the previous matches - so was really hoping for a win when I got up this morning - and here we are

Thanks for this, I had always assumed that it was just how likely a player was to win that reflected their odds.

Well, it is - but it's how likely the player is to win in the eyes of the public, not in the eyes of the betting site

i.e. the betting site puts up the very first odds for a match, and then if tons of people start betting on one person, it shows that the odds were too generous for that person and the odds will change (and become less generous) - it's not the betting site's view that's changed as such, after that initial posting, now they just mirror what money is being bet on either player

Helen40 · Grand Slam Champion

Coup Droit wrote:
Helen40 wrote:
Coup Droit wrote:
JonH comes home wrote:
indiana wrote:
Strongbow wrote:
Now that was unexpected - at least by me. Well done Jack
Jack was favoured to beat Fritz in the Tennis Abstract simulations in the link Jon posted, and I believe he was also slight favourite with the bookies.
It wouldnt surprise me if any Bookies have some arrangement - paid or otherwise - with something like the tennis abstract tool?
The bookies only reflect the bets - they don't set them (apart from the very first ones)
The flow of money determines the bets on a betting site, not the company
PS Super win ! Like others, I couldn't watch much - too late - and also think Fritz often disappoints and Jack played really well in the previous matches - so was really hoping for a win when I got up this morning - and here we are

Thanks for this, I had always assumed that it was just how likely a player was to win that reflected their odds.
Well, it is - but it's how likely the player is to win in the eyes of the public, not in the eyes of the betting site
i.e. the betting site puts up the very first odds for a match, and then if tons of people start betting on one person, it shows that the odds were too generous for that person and the odds will change (and become less generous) - it's not the betting site's view that's changed as such, after that initial posting, now they just mirror what money is being bet on either player

I see. I'd always used the betting odds as an indicator of their likely hood to win -which I guess it is, but also their popularity?

Is there a way of finding the initial odds (assuming that this might be a better indicator or the winner)?

JonH comes home · Tennis legend

Coup Droit wrote:
Helen40 wrote:
Coup Droit wrote:
JonH comes home wrote:
indiana wrote:
Strongbow wrote:
Now that was unexpected - at least by me. Well done Jack
Jack was favoured to beat Fritz in the Tennis Abstract simulations in the link Jon posted, and I believe he was also slight favourite with the bookies.
It wouldnt surprise me if any Bookies have some arrangement - paid or otherwise - with something like the tennis abstract tool?
The bookies only reflect the bets - they don't set them (apart from the very first ones)
The flow of money determines the bets on a betting site, not the company
PS Super win ! Like others, I couldn't watch much - too late - and also think Fritz often disappoints and Jack played really well in the previous matches - so was really hoping for a win when I got up this morning - and here we are

Thanks for this, I had always assumed that it was just how likely a player was to win that reflected their odds.
Well, it is - but it's how likely the player is to win in the eyes of the public, not in the eyes of the betting site
i.e. the betting site puts up the very first odds for a match, and then if tons of people start betting on one person, it shows that the odds were too generous for that person and the odds will change (and become less generous) - it's not the betting site's view that's changed as such, after that initial posting, now they just mirror what money is being bet on either player

Got it- but for that very initial odds before the public gets in, I wonder what inputs they use to set those odds - is it a person who knows tennis or an algorithm or a junior clerk?!

indiana · Tennis legend

I would be ruling out a junior clerk. May just be the initial odds but the bookies could get seriously stung at the off if these odds are much divorced from true likelihood.

Some serious punters would more specifically aim to catch initial odds.