British Tennis Forum - Celebrating 20 Years!

dodrade wrote:

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MrTSymonds wrote:

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The reality is, as a non seed, Emma needs to get to round 3 to be "profitable" and round 4 would be fantastic.

And she has a very good shot at getting to round 3, and in reality a decent at round 4. There's no guarantee that Rybakina makes it to round 3, though Wildcard, Bronzetti doesn't shout problems.

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 Emma lost in R1 last year so surely any win is profitable?

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On a pure points basis yes, but if she's trying to break into the top 32, she needs to be scoring top 32 points, otherwise people will just pass her.

Andy Parker wrote:

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seagull wrote:

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That is not a fantastic draw for Emma!
Rybakina r3
Paolini in r4
And then Sabakenka!

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 My feelings entirely.

Rybakina was one of eight players I really hoped Emma would avoid in the early stages of the draw. Emma has a great chance of making Round 3, but it is hard to see her getting beyond that, and potentially some really tough matches should she make it past Rybakina.

Katie B has not hard much luck with her first round draw and I'm not hopeful for her, given her current form that she will make it past the first round, but I wonder if Sonay could spring a surprise against Hadad Maia and if Fran qualifies, there are a few nice opponents she could end up against: Jeanjean would be my best pick for her.

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It's most certainly nothing like awful either!

Whatever our various estimations of Emma's level at the moment the fact is she is a non seed, had to be bracketed against a seed in one of the first two rounds, and that could have been any seed including any of the above named as being in her way for making later rounds. As it is her first 2 rounds are a qualifier and then hopefully (24) Kudermetova or a qualifier. That's a result ( people who come out with oh, you never know with qualifiers and / or Kudermetova is playing well, I think may have been born pessimistic ).

Win these first 2 rounds and she can look at who remains in her way to reaching the L16, QF and SF ( she had to be bracketed with a top 16 seed in one of the first 3 rounds and from these gets Rybakina as a possible R3 opponent ). And if she was to go and reach the QF ( and yes there would be other more promising, probably some very much more promising QF opponents ), I think I could just about live with Emma being in a US Open QF vs Sabakenka!

Emma is first on Louis Armstrong on Sunday (4pm)

Fran v Eva Lys
Emma v Shibahara

indiana wrote:

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Andy Parker wrote:

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seagull wrote:

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That is not a fantastic draw for Emma!
Rybakina r3
Paolini in r4
And then Sabakenka!

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 My feelings entirely.

Rybakina was one of eight players I really hoped Emma would avoid in the early stages of the draw. Emma has a great chance of making Round 3, but it is hard to see her getting beyond that, and potentially some really tough matches should she make it past Rybakina.

Katie B has not hard much luck with her first round draw and I'm not hopeful for her, given her current form that she will make it past the first round, but I wonder if Sonay could spring a surprise against Hadad Maia and if Fran qualifies, there are a few nice opponents she could end up against: Jeanjean would be my best pick for her.

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It's most certainly nothing like awful either!

Whatever our various estimations of Emma's level at the moment the fact is she is a non seed, had to be bracketed against a seed in one of the first two rounds, and that could have been any seed including any of the above named as being in her way for making later rounds. As it is her first 2 rounds are a qualifier and then hopefully (24) Kudermetova or a qualifier. That's a result ( people who come out with oh, you never know with qualifiers and / or Kudermetova is playing well, I think may have been born pessimistic ).

Win these first 2 rounds and she can look at who remains in her way to reaching the L16, QF and SF ( she had to be bracketed with a top 16 seed in one of the first 3 rounds and from these gets Rybakina as a possible R3 opponent ). And if she was to go and reach the QF ( and yes there would be other more promising, probably some very much more promising QF opponents ), I think I could just about live with Emma being in a US Open QF vs Sabakenka!

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 I just think Rybakina is such a good solid player and watching her beat an in form Katie B a couple of times makes me really fear any Brit coming up against her. For me, Rybakina is probably the most under-rated player of the top seeds and I'm kind of waiting for her to step up and win a few Grand Slams. Hopefully I'm wrong and Emma brings her A game to the US and goes on a real run. I feel pretty confident she'll make Round 3 anyway, so I guess she has a nice draw for the first couple of rounds, as you say. It's after that, I'm worried about.

How many points does Fran need to make sure she finishes the year inside the Top 100 and makes the MD of the Australian Open?

 

Surely Fran should be added to the BJK Cup squad now? She and Emma are the only two who have shown any form post-Wimbledon.

-- Edited by dodrade on Friday 22nd of August 2025 11:32:30 PM

From Peter's calculations, if I have understood correctly, Fran has 837 points at present and so could drop 136 points to 701 by the time of the Aussie Open if she won no more matches between now and then.

The current Wold Number 100 Yue Yuan has 735 points, so although players move up and down in the rankings, that is the sort of figure needed to make the top 100.

What that therefore means is that Fran probably needs around 34 more points to make the top 100 in time for the Aussie Open in January., so one win at the US Open should do it.