British Tennis Forum - Celebrating 20 Years!

Thanks, PeteM

Coup Droit wrote:

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'BEST' COMMENT from QUALIS (as in truly weird, and one of the problems with tennis in the UK)

Setting: Oliver Tarvet's match against very good Greek guy.Ball whistling around.

Elderly man about 70, to his wife:

"This is why I like coming to qualifying. It's so much more relatable. I mean, their shots are basically the same as ours, a little more speed on the serve, but the action, the shots, the tennis, it's basically the same"

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Coup Droit wrote:

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PeteM wrote:

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Really enjoyed Max's interview after qualifying - it obviously means a huge amount to him to have made it into the main draw.

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 Did he say anything about whether he's going pro and taking the money? 

I mean, his dad has been extremely successful, as a board member for LTA but way more importantl,  in private equity, and is worth a lot

 

But it's still a big decision 

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Isn't Max already pro? I read an article that said he graduated from university last year.

Coup Droit wrote:

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'BEST' COMMENT from QUALIS (as in truly weird, and one of the problems with tennis in the UK)

Setting: Oliver Tarvet's match against very good Greek guy.Ball whistling around.

Elderly man about 70, to his wife:

"This is why I like coming to qualifying. It's so much more relatable. I mean, their shots are basically the same as ours, a little more speed on the serve, but the action, the shots, the tennis, it's basically the same"

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 As an elderly man of about 70, I can assure him that they are nothing like mine.

Hi Ian - adjusting your question slightly and the answer becomes 97% chance! That is because there are seeds
And just one of those is British per below (I didnt write it!)

When adjusting for tournament seeding rules, the probability of at least one all-British first-round match increases drastically to 97.70% (or 0.9770).This major jump occurs because the 32 seeded players are legally barred from playing against one another in the first round. This heavily restricts where players can be placed and concentrates the remaining unseeded British players into a smaller pool of available matchups.1. Understand the Restricted Draw StructureA Grand Slam bracket divides its 128 tournament slots into two strict categories:32 Seeded Slots: These players are spread across the draw and cannot play each other.96 Unseeded Slots: These slots hold the rest of the field.Because of this, the first round consists of exactly two types of matches:32 Seed vs. Unseeded matches32 Unseeded vs. Unseeded matchesWith 1 British player seeded, the remaining 11 British players must occupy unseeded slots.2. Count the Total Seeding CombinationsThe seeded British player takes 1 of the 32 available seed slots. The remaining 11 unseeded British players must be distributed among the remaining 127 open slots in the entire tournament layout.\(\text{Total\ Valid\ Configurations}=32\times {127 \choose 11}\)3. Calculate Configurations with No All-British MatchesTo avoid any all-British matchups, the 11 unseeded British players must be strategically placed to ensure they never cross paths with the British seed or each other:The British Seed's Opponent: The 1 unseeded slot paired directly against the British seed must not contain a British player.The Remaining 31 Seed Opponents: A maximum of 1 unseeded British player can be assigned to face any of the other 31 non-British seeds.The 32 Unseeded vs. Unseeded Matches: A maximum of 1 unseeded British player can be placed into any of these matches (occupying either of the 2 available slots within that match).We sum the valid non-overlapping configurations where k unseeded British players face non-British seeds, and the remaining (11-k) players are placed into separate unseeded-vs-unseeded matches:\(\text{No\ Overlap\ Configurations}=32\times \sum _{k=0}^{11}\left[{31 \choose k}\times {32 \choose 11-k}\times 2^{11-k}
ight]\)4. Compute the Final Seeded ProbabilityDividing the non-overlapping configurations by the total possible combinations gives the probability of a completely clear draw:\(P(\text{No\ All-British\ Match})=\frac{1,635,755,866,040,160}{71,178,136,468,863,920}\approx 2.30\%\)Subtracting this from 1 gives the probability that at least one all-British match occurs:\(P(\text{At\ Least\ One\ All-British\ Match})=1-0.022981\approx 97.70\%\) Adjusted Probability ResultAccounting for the tournament seeding structure, the probability of an all-British first-round match is 97.70%.

Ian1314 wrote:

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Ok Thanks Jon - I thought about seedings, but not enough apparently - I thought that since we only had the one seeded player, there wouldn't have been an additional issue.

So we will almost definitely have an all GB first round!

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 like you I asked AI, so it could be wrong! Although I asked the same question you asked and it gave an original similar answer, so the jump up was based off that initial question lets see!