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the addict · Tennis legend

Week 25 - The Championships, Wimbledon - Qualifying - grass

emmsie69 · Masters Series Champion

7 seeds lost in the FQR so Heather won't be a LL.
So disppointing for her, she battled so hard yesterday and was so thrilled to win that match but I do think it took it out of her. She was one of the last off yesterday and that match was an emotional rollercoaster.
I'd like to see her get back in the top 100, with some smart scheduling there's no reason why she shouldn't do so.

Var · Challenger qualifying

emmsie69 wrote:
7 seeds lost in the FQR so Heather won't be a LL.
So disppointing for her, she battled so hard yesterday and was so thrilled to win that match but I do think it took it out of her. She was one of the last off yesterday and that match was an emotional rollercoaster.
I'd like to see her get back in the top 100, with some smart scheduling there's no reason why she shouldn't do so.

Shes a fave of mine as well. When Ive watched her always feel she connects with the crowd.

Blue_Belle · Pro player

Var wrote:
emmsie69 wrote:
7 seeds lost in the FQR so Heather won't be a LL.
So disppointing for her, she battled so hard yesterday and was so thrilled to win that match but I do think it took it out of her. She was one of the last off yesterday and that match was an emotional rollercoaster.
I'd like to see her get back in the top 100, with some smart scheduling there's no reason why she shouldn't do so.
Shes a fave of mine as well. When Ive watched her always feel she connects with the crowd.

Yes I am also a Heather fan. Hoping she goes well in the doubles and mixed, should she be there.

GAMEOVER · Futures qualifying

Of non British players Jeanjean has made it through qualifying as has fomer US open champion Bianca Andreescu.Its sometime since Andreescu made the main draw of a Grand Slam singles.

emmsie69 · Masters Series Champion

GAMEOVER wrote:
Of non British players Jeanjean has made it through qualifying as has fomer US open champion Bianca Andreescu.Its sometime since Andreescu made the main draw of a Grand Slam singles.

Yep, it's not just Emma that has had her issues.

-- Edited by emmsie69 on Thursday 25th of June 2026 08:48:59 PM

Ian1314 · Lower Club Player

I tried this again using AI and got a similar result to last year.

With 9 British women in a 128player draw, there is roughly a 31% chance of getting at least one allBritish firstround match.

JonH · Tennis legend

Allowing for seedings, the calculation apparently becomes 92% chance

When adjusting for 9 British players (1 seeded and 8 unseeded), the probability of at least one all-British first-round match is 92.65% (or 0.9265).Even with fewer players, the seeding restriction forces unseeded players into a narrower pool of available matches, keeping the probability of a domestic clash exceptionally high.1. Count the Total ConfigurationsWith 1 British player locked into a seed slot, the remaining 8 unseeded British players must be distributed across the remaining 127 open slots in the tournament draw:\(\text{Total\ Valid\ Configurations}={127 \choose 8}=1,340,346,236,625\)2. Calculate Configurations with No OverlapsTo prevent any British players from facing each other, the 8 unseeded British players must be distributed so that:The 1 slot directly facing the British seed remains empty of British players.A maximum of 1 British player can occupy any of the other 31 seed-opponent slots.A maximum of 1 British player can be placed in any of the 32 unseeded-vs-unseeded matches (occupying either of the 2 slots).Summing the configurations where \(k\) players face seeds, and the remaining \((8-k)\) players land in separate unseeded-vs-unseeded matches:\(\text{No\ Overlap\ Configurations}=\sum _{k=0}^{8}\left[{31 \choose k}\times {32 \choose 8-k}\times 2^{8-k}
ight]=98,465,333,077\)3. Compute the Final ProbabilitiesDividing the non-overlapping configurations by the total possible combinations gives the probability of a draw without any all-British matches:\(P(\text{No\ All-British\ Match})=\frac{98,465,333,077}{1,340,346,236,625}\approx 7.35\%\)Subtracting this from 1 yields the probability that at least one all-British matchup occurs:\(P(\text{At\ Least\ One\ All-British\ Match})=1-0.073463=\mathbf{92.65\%}\) Summary of Scenarios12 British players (1 seeded): 97.70% chance of a first-round match.9 British players (1 seeded): 92.65% chance of a first-round match.

Ian1314 · Lower Club Player

I'll guess Emma or Katie will face a fellow Brit. biggrin

(Apologies for lateness - we had a power cut, tonight)

dodrade · Futures qualifying

emmsie69 wrote:
7 seeds lost in the FQR so Heather won't be a LL.
So disppointing for her, she battled so hard yesterday and was so thrilled to win that match but I do think it took it out of her. She was one of the last off yesterday and that match was an emotional rollercoaster.
I'd like to see her get back in the top 100, with some smart scheduling there's no reason why she shouldn't do so.

Heather hasn't been in the Top 100 for four years, frankly I very much doubt she will ever be again.

JonH · Tennis legend

I asked a different AI and the answer was more like 1 in 4! So I dont know, Ian! Sorry!

If there are 9 British players in total (with 1 still being seeded), the probability of having at least one all-British opening round match drops to \(\frac{1,101,151,073}{4,277,452,140}\), which is approximately 25.74%.1. Update the Count of Unseeded PlayersWith 1 British player seeded, the remaining 8 British players are unseeded. They are distributed randomly among the same 96 available unseeded slots in the tournament draw.2. Calculate New Total CombinationsThe total number of ways to randomly arrange these 8 unseeded British players across the 96 open slots is:\(\text{Total\ Ways}={96 \choose 8}=132,601,016,340\)3. Calculate New Combinations for NO All-British MatchJust like before, we sum the safe configurations. Let i represent the number of British players landing in the 31 safe slots against non-British seeds. The remaining 8 - i players must occupy separate unseeded match pairs:\(\text{Valid\ Ways}=\sum _{i=0}^{8}{31 \choose i}{32 \choose 8-i}2^{8-i}=98,465,333,077\)4. Find the Updated ProbabilityThe probability of no all-British matches occurring is:\(P(\text{No\ Match})=\frac{98,465,333,077}{132,601,016,340}\approx 0.7426\)Subtracting this value from 1 gives the updated probability of getting at least one all-British match:\(P(\text{At\ Least\ One\ Match})=1-0.7426=0.2574\)Fewer British players significantly lower the density of the group, which cuts the chances of an early civil war match by nearly half (from 42.04% down to 25.74%). Final AnswerThe updated probability of an all-British opening round match with 9 total British players is exactly \(\frac{1,101,151,073}{4,277,452,140}\), or roughly 25.74%.